Friday, April 3, 2009

Bandwidth Price Points

According to Telegeography Research (2009B):
  • Prices are declining due to growing supply, greater competition, liberalizing markets, and technological advancements
  • Prices for higher-capacity products are dropping faster than lower-capacity products
  • The more you buy, the less you pay per Mbps
  • High capacity means high revenue
  • Prices change in large steps
  • Prices vary by geography, carrier, customer
Wholesale private lines (IPLC, etc.):
  • Compound annual decline 3% - 12% (median private line prices 2005 - 2008)
  • Prices vary by geography: different prices correspond to different market conditions (competition, supply/demand balance, etc); Hong-Kong - Tokyo price/km is 5x London-New York
  • Price trens vary by capacity: larger capacity, greater decline
  • Price per Mbps decreases with increasing capacity
  • Prices vary by carrier: different prices correspond to different paths, market segments served, regional strengts, SLAs, local access ownership, etc.; price changes occur in steps up to 50%; CAGR ranges from 0% - 28%

IP Transit:
  • Compound annual decline 16% - 26% (globally)
  • Prices vary by geography : prices correspond to different costs of underlying transport and market conditions (competition, supply/demand balance, etc.); Rio de Janeiro is nearly 8x Los Angeles
  • Prices vary by capacity: price per Mbps decreases with increasing capacity (a 10 Gbps port at $5 per Mbps is $600,000 annual revenue; FastE at $15 per Mbps is $18,000); Higher capacities, greater declines
  • Prices vary by committed data rate (CDR): price pe Mbps decreases with increasing capacity; 200 Mbps CDR price is 54% higher per Mbps than full port (but 70% less revenue)
  • Prices vary by carrier: different prices correspond to different market segments served, regional strengths, SLAs, local access ownership, etc.; price changes occur in steps of up to 50%; compound annual decline ranges 20% - 35%

IP VPN:
  • Prices vary by geography: retail price trend is more stable than wholesale; CAGR ranges 5% - 23%
  • Prices vary by carrier: prices vary due to different market segments served, regional strengths, SLAs, local access ownership, etc.
  • Price changes occur in steps of up to 50%, but demonstrate some convergence - CAGR ranges 11% - 36%
  • Price bundle includes value-added: port bandwidth remains dominant price component; other elements' proportion varies by region; less tied to commodity pricing dynamics
Other Notes:
  • Shift to high-capacity products, which are declining in price more rapidly, compounds decline in revenue per bit
  • Price declines outpaced by demand growth, implying growing revenue
  • Anecdotal price is not necessarily the market price (nor is the median price)
  • Other terms, conditions, and relationships can affect actual price paid for capacity

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